Euro May Trade Between 1.0650-1.0750

The US Dollar Index and Euro can trade in the 106.50-105/104 and 1.0650-1.0750/08 range respectively, while USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are bullish towards 162 and 173/174. AUD and GBP have gained nicely but remain in a sideways range of 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 respectively. USD/CNY is close to our target of 7.28 where an initial pullback could occur. EUR/INR has gained nicely in the past two sessions but below 90 it could trade in the 89-90 region for a while. USD/INR could continue to trade in the 83.30-83.67 range in the near term.

US Treasury yields have fallen slightly following comments from Fed Chairman Powell that the central bank is happy with inflation progress but will still wait to start the process of rate cuts. Yields have room to rise before reversing lower again. German yields continue to rise and are bullish for further gains. 10-year and 5-year German bond yields remain stable. They have room to continue to rise while holding above short-term support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is stuck in a narrow range, but there is room for an upside breakout. The German DAX index is falling in a sideways range. A breakout on either side of the range is needed to provide more clarity on the future direction. The Indian Nifty index lacks a strong follow-through above 24,200. It needs to be watched whether it breaks above 24,200 or falls below 24,000. The Nikkei rebounded sharply and may rise to key resistance before pausing. The Shanghai Index fell and failed to rise above 3,000, but the recent support level may support the Shanghai Index, leading to the Shanghai Index eventually rising above 3,000.

Crude oil prices fell slightly, but the recent support level may hold and eventually rise to key resistance in the short term. Gold, silver and copper have resistance above which, if held, could result in a pullback in the short term. Natural gas remains subdued and bearish.

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