EUR/USD To Trade In 1.0650-1.0750 Range

The decline in US ISM manufacturing data led to a fall in the US dollar index and a slight strengthening of the euro, but the move was short-lived. The US dollar index and EUR/USD are likely to trade in the 106.50-105/104 and 1.0650-1.0750/08 ranges for a while. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY will soon test the upper targets of 162 and 174 respectively, and the bullish momentum will continue further in the absence of any intervention by the Bank of Japan. The Australian dollar and the British pound fell sharply and may fall to the lower limits of their respective ranges of 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28. USD/CNY may rise to 7.28 above 7.27. EUR/INR may trade in the 89.00-90/91 area for a while. USD/INR may continue to trade in the 83.67-83.40/30 range in the near term and may eventually break upwards in the medium term.

The rise in US Treasury yields is in line with our expectations. Yields may continue to rise before a reversal occurs. German Bund yields surged. The momentum is strong and may push yields higher further in the coming days. 10-year and 5-year German Bund yields are slowly rising. They have further room to rise.

The Dow Jones Industrials remain range-bound but still have room to break out to the upside. The German DAX needs to break out of either side of its range to get clarity on the future direction. The Indian Nifty continues to move higher above 24,000 but needs to break above 24,200 to strengthen the bullish momentum or it may fall back. The Nikkei lacks a strong follow-through above 40,000 but still favors further gains above 39,000. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen to 3,000 and could rise to 3,050-3,100 in the near term.

Crude oil prices have risen sharply and are bullish to key resistance levels in the short term. There is resistance above for gold, silver and copper. Gold may trade sideways below resistance for a while. If silver and copper hold the resistance level, they may still fall. Natural gas further falls below $2.5, with a bearish trend of $2.3-2.0.

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