USD/INR extends gains on cautious Fed policy outlook, India-Pakistan tensions

The Indian rupee (INR) weakened against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its decline for the third consecutive session. The USD/INR exchange rate gained ground on the cautious policy outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed). As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but its statement acknowledged the growing risks associated with inflation and unemployment, injecting new uncertainty into the market.

The Indian rupee came under pressure due to rising cross-border tensions between India and Pakistan, which added to risk aversion. India struck nine targets in Pakistan in Operation Sindhu, launched two weeks after a deadly militant attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Intense artillery fire was also reported along the Line of Control that separates Indian and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir.

Recent data showed that India’s inflation rate fell to its lowest level in more than five years in March, well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4%. Meanwhile, GDP growth slowed to 6.5% in the last fiscal year, down from 8.2% previously, prompting the central bank to prioritize growth.

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