Euro falls on political tensions

The US dollar index rose slightly, while the euro fell on concerns about the current Hungarian parliament and political tensions. Overall, both remain in the 104.50-106.50 and 1.07-1.0850/09 range, respectively. Fed Chairman Powell maintained a cautious stance during his testimony in the Senate, which had little impact on the market. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY rose towards 162 and 175, respectively. AUD and GBP need to break 0.6750 and 1.2850 strongly to test 0.68 and 1.30, otherwise they may fall sharply from current levels. USD/CNY above 7.27 may continue to rise to 7.28, while. EUR/INR has risen, but the upside is expected to be limited at 91 and may fall to 89.50-89 in the medium term. USD/INR may continue to trade between 83.40-83.50/60 in the near term.

US Treasury yields and German Bund yields have risen, which is bullish in the near term. The 10-year German Bund yield could fall to 6.96% in the short term before recovering, while the 5-year German Bund yield has broken below support and could turn bearish for a few sessions unless there is an immediate pullback.

The Dow Jones Industrials and the Dax slipped further yesterday. The Dow Jones remains bullish above 39600, while the Dax could bounce from the 18200-18000 support zone. The Nifty continues to maintain a bullish trend and could test 24500-24700 soon, with the possibility of a corrective decline there. The Nikkei 225 is bullish and is expected to test 42000-43000, while the Shanghai Composite Index may currently trade above 2900, but needs to break 3000 to turn bullish in the short term. A break below 2900 would trigger a decline to 2850-2800.

Crude oil prices have fallen further below recent support levels, with a bearish near-term outlook as the decline continues. Gold has risen slightly and may target the 2450-2460 range above 2340/60. Silver is hovering above support and may trade sideways between 30.5-31.5 for a while. Copper and natural gas continue to fall, with copper likely to fall to 4.5-4.4 and natural gas near-term target 2.1-2.0.

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