The Recovery Of Market Sentiment Provides Support For The EUR & The EUR/USD Fluctuates Higher

EUR/USD rebounded from recent swing lows near 1.0670 as ECB rate cut spying continues.

Investors shrugged off the Fed’s cautious tone and bet on a September rate cut.

EU economic data was light this week, with only secondary economic data and the global PMI due on Friday.

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.0740 on Monday as sentiment shifted back towards rate cut hopes, with investors shrugging off cautious comments from Federal Reserve (FED) officials warning that rate cuts may not be achieved at a pace that investors are satisfied with. US data will dominate financial headlines, with retail sales data due on Tuesday and markets consolidating ahead of an update to the global PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) on Friday.

Pan-European economic data this week is limited to secondary data, so the market will focus on US retail sales data due on Tuesday. In May, US retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month after being flat at 0.0% last month. Core retail sales, which excludes auto sales, are also expected to be flat at 0.2%.

The upcoming economic events this week will feature speeches from a number of Fed officials, with several policymakers striking a decidedly cautious tone on Monday. Despite recent inflation data showing a faster-than-expected decline, the Fed stressed its reluctance to cut rates too soon, stressing the need to observe further data before making any decisions.

Later in the week, EU and US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due on Friday are expected to diverge, with markets predicting a slight pickup in pan-EU activity and a slight decline in the US PMI.

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